Amid historic worries about population growth, people often forget that many countries around the world are, or will soon be, shrinking in size. Full Article
In the coming decades, the countries that can maintain an at least somewhat reasonable population growth rate, and enough younger people, will likely do best. To a large extent, it’s too late for that in much of Europe and East Asia. For countries like the United States, Canada and Australia, with among the most liberal immigration policies and large landmasses, the prospects may be far better. However, we also need native-born youngsters to launch, get married and start creating the next generation of Americans.
many countries around the world are, or will soon be, shrinking in size
1) Ukraine (-22% between 2015 and 2050)2) Japan (-15.1% between 2015 and 2050)3) Poland (-14% between 2015 and 2050)4) The Russian Federation (-10.4% between 2015 and 2050)5) Thailand (-8.1% between 2015 and 2050)6) Germany (-7.7% between 2015 and 2050)7) Italy (-5.5% between 2015 and 2050)8) Spain (-2.8% between 2015 and 2050)9) China (-2% between 2015 and 2050)
This severity of birth decline in Europe and East Asia again points to the importance of appreciating motherhood for its contribution to both the economy and society as a whole.
Most world leaders are fixated on the unpredictable new administration in Washington in the short term, but they might do better to look at the more certain long-term impacts of diminishing populations on the world’s most important economies.